Tonight is the TFTB Fantasy Football Draft. Last year Team Anastasia Fantasy Football Club was a rollercoaster. From laying a smackdown off the drop of 200 plus points to failing to make the playoffs. But we are not a team that strays away from our moral compass. We will not surrender the Moneyball ways and plan to execute the same strategy this year.
Wait, what is Moneyball again?
Essentially it’s a method of drafting your fantasy football team by measuring a team’s strength of schedule to their expected wins total. This allows you to isolate 3 teams that should not only win most of their games, but also win them by a lot. The idea is to take an NFC team, an AFC team, and a flex team to play when your two main teams have tough weeks.
Once you have identified these teams it’s your job to secure all the big name players from each team. This could look really nuts because you’re jumping in the 5th round to take a third receiver. Or securing your QB in the 3rd round. It also can force you to trade a lot during the league and draft to see your vision through.
It is also helpful to take teams that are not fantasy darlings. But that’s very rarely possible.
The reason Chip and I are showing our cards this year is due to last year’s debacle. We attempted to keep our picks close to the vest, but once everyone figured out what our teams were they started to take players out of spite. So if we tell them up front maybe everyone can get over it and play the right way.
So here are the 3 teams for this year’s Moneyball.
AFC Team – Buffalo Bills
Here is a shocker, the Bills are expected to win the division this year. Plus they have the 23rd toughest schedule this year. That would lead you to believe there will be a couple of blow out wins for them during the season. Plus their late regular season schedule looks great, Panthers, Falcons, and Jets in the last 3 of the 4 weeks. Right when the playoffs are in full swing. The key here will be to get Diggs and Allen early. You may have to take them with your first and second round picks.
NFL Team – Dallas Cowboys
Run it back we Dem Boys! Look, it was the Cowboys who killed us last year. We didn’t get Zeke and when Dak got hurt our team fell apart. But this year could be different. If Dak is healthy and that’s a big if. This team will run train on the NFC Beast, and with the 31st hardest schedule you can see them winning 13 games. Securing Zeke will be the hard part, but after that they are so deep at receiver you shouldn’t have too many worries. When it comes to Dak I think the preseason injury will scare off a lot of folks, so he should be there later if you miss on Josh Allen.
Flex Team – Miami Dolphins
This is the first time my flex team lives in the same division as one of my main teams. I think the Dolphins will finish 3rd in the division and be a borderline wild card team. But their schedule out of division is pretty sexy. With the 27th best schedule they may steal you a game in an off week for your big clubs. Plus I am interested to see how they mix with the Bills. It could be that when these two get together it’s a fire wagon sale and defense is non-existent. So playing as many starters from both teams could benefit. I also like the idea that everyone thinks that Tua will suck so his targets won’t get the opportunity to be good. That makes them cheap and easy to get in later rounds.
Good luck and may the draft board fall in your favor.